Families Shrank by as Much as 15% in These U.S. Cities – 2023 Study

By Jaclyn DeJohn | AUG 15, 2023

The average family size decreased by 5% over just two years in major U.S. cities. There can be many obstacles preventing people from having as many children, including the cost to raise a child. But family sizes can affect an economy for generations, and sudden changes in demographics can strain social programs and institutional infrastructure, like Social Security funding and housing markets.

To see where recent changes in family demographics are most drastic, SmartAsset examined data among 37 major metro areas between 2019 and 2021.

Key Findings

• New York City is the only major metropolitan area where family size grew over the last two years. This is despite more families being in poverty and a decrease in the median family wage. Meanwhile, San Francisco families shrank by 2.24%, with an increase in the rate of family poverty, and a $10,000 annual median pay bump. 
• Family size dropped by 15% in San Antonio, TX, most of all. It dropped by over 11% in El Paso and more than 10% in Washington, DC. In 2019, San Antonio and El Paso had the largest family size across the big metro areas at 3.83 and 3.74 people per family, respectively.
• The proportion of families in poverty increased by up to 50% in these cities. In Washington D.C., the rate of families in poverty went up from 13.7% to 20.5% in just two years. Seattle (5.8% to 8.3%), Fort Worth (12.3% to 16.1%), San Jose (5.2% to 6.7%) and San Diego (9.1% to 11.4%) also had relatively high increases of families in poverty.
• Seattle, Portland and Nashville have the smallest family sizes. The average family is made up of less than three people in these metro areas. Meanwhile, the largest families are in Fresno (3.65), Detroit (3.5) and San Jose (3.5). However, the family size decreased in all three of those metro areas.
• Families became smaller in these cities despite increased incomes and lower rates of poverty. Cost of living increases may not explain the decrease in family size in Fresno, Albuquerque, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Mesa and Atlanta.

Top 10 Largest Drops in Family Size

1. San Antonio, TX
   Family size decreased from 3.83 people to 3.25 people in San Antonio in just two years. It dropped down from the largest family size in 2019 to the 14th largest in 2021. Families below the poverty income grew from 20.1% to 20.3%. The median family income is $66,015.
2. El Paso, Texas
   El Paso had an 11.23% decrease in family size over two years, going from a 3.74 average to 3.32. The financial bag was mixed for families: While the percentage of families in poverty grew from 22.4% to 23.1%, the median family wage increased by roughly 5.5% to $57,116.
3. Washington, D.C.
   D.C. had a particularly high increase in the proportion of families in poverty over two years, going from 13.7% to 20.5%. The size of a family here averaged 3.38 people in 2019, but decreased to 3.03 in 2021. Meanwhile, the median family income totalled $136,184 after a 4.52% increase.
4. Nashville, TN
   The average family size in Nashville sank below three people between 2019 and 2021, going down from 3.09 to 2.84. The rate of families in poverty increased from 15% to 18.7% in that time, while family earnings went up by only 0.93% to $81,660.
5. Baltimore, MD
   Baltimore family sizes shrank by 7.78% in two years. Almost one in three (28.6%) families here are below the poverty line, with an average size of 3.08 people. This is after a 5.5 point increase between 2019 and 2021. Meanwhile, the median family income went up to $68,178 in that time.
6. Tucson, AZ
   The average family in Tucson decreased in size from 3.25 to an even 3. The poverty rate for families stayed relatively flat, going up only 0.8 points over two years. The median family income outpaced that, increasing by 6.66% to over $61,000.
7. Indianapolis, IN
   Indianapolis families shrank by the same percentage as those in Tucson – 7.69%. But here, this means moving from an average of 3.51 to 3.24. Families in poverty increased from 15.9% in 2019 to 18.3% in 2021. Median family incomes had a particularly good run over this time, going up by 12.25% to $72,597.
8. Houston, TX
   The family size in Houston has decreased from an average 3.41 people in 2019 to 3.16 in 2021. The median family income grew by just 2.67% to $61,795, while a slightly higher proportion of families fell under the poverty line (23.9%).
9. Albuquerque, NM
   Families in Albuquerque had a particularly high median income increase – 18.25% in just two years – up to $78,694 per year. The proportion of families under the poverty line went down from 20.1% to 19.2%. Meanwhile, family sizes still fell from 3.22 people to 2.99.
10. Mesa, AZ
    The family size in Mesa dropped from an average of 3.38 people to 3.14, which is a 7.10% decrease. This is in spite of financial metrics favoring families: Poverty decreased from 13.6% to 10.2% and incomes rose by 11.78% to $83,116.

Data and Methodology

To measure the change in average family size, median family income and the proportion of families in poverty, we compared the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 1 Year ACS Survey, S0201, from 2019 to 2021. The study included 37 major cities for which data was available. Cities were ranked in order of largest to smallest decrease in family size.

Financial Tips for New Parents

• Start saving for your child’s education. It’s never too early to start putting money away for your child’s future education. 529 savings plans are tax-advantaged accounts that help investors put money away for future education costs. Money that’s saved in a 529 plan grows tax-free and can also be withdrawn tax-free as long as you use the funds to pay for qualified higher education expenses like tuition, mandatory fees and books required for enrollment.
• Don’t forget about retirement. You’ll have added financial responsibilities as a new parent, but try your best to continue to save for retirement. SmartAsset’s retirement calculator can help you track your progress and estimate how much money you’ll have at retirement age.
• Work with a financial professional. Whether you want to buy a home, invest in the stock market or purchase life insurance to protect your family, a financial advisor can help. Finding a financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three vetted financial advisors who serve your area.

Questions about our study? Contact press@smartasset.com.

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